Anyway, this time, I interspersed it with some commentary, but it won't go too deep. I am doing it more for the fun of guessing the rare out-of-the-field contender, or general trends, rather than maximize my prediction accuracy (which I will count, though). So if I tried to justify every occasion of eschewing a common-knowledge "lock", I wouldn't have finished typing before the actual announcement of the nominations.
Picture:
The Curious case of Benjamin Button
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
The Wrestler
Director:
Darren Arronofsky, The Wrestler
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Actor:
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
All the predictions in all categories are heavily swayed by my wishful thinking. However, I made a conscious decision not to be influenced by it in case of one film: The Visitor. I think it's a viable dark horse in Original Screenplay, Music, and to a lesser extent both Supportings. But seeing as superior and more loved by precursors Station Agent got zero nominations, I don't want to set myself up for disappointment here. I like the film too much. I had to make an exception for Jenkins, though...
Actress:
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas, Il y a longtemps que je t'aime
Michelle Williams, Wendy and Lucy
Just like last year, I am not sure at which point Jolie suddenly became a lock. I admit my picks are, er, courageous, but I'd be willing to bet actual money (not much, mind you, but I am not a gambler at heart!) that Angelina doesn't get in anyway. Sure, she is a very serious possibility, but nothing throughout the season points quite to the level of support Streep, Winslet or Hathaways have -- and yet, just like last year, everybody will act as though it's a great upset if she doesn't.
Supp Actor:
Josh Brolin, Milk
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Eddie Marsan, Happy-Go-Lucky
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Supp Actress:
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Debra Winger, Rachel Getting Married
Orig Screenplay:
Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Courtney Hunt, Frozen River
Charlie Kaufman, Synecdoche New York
Martin McDonagh, In Bruges
Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon, WALL-E
Adapted Screenplay:
Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Don McKellar, Blindness
Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
Cinematography:
César Charlone, Blindness
Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight
Mandy Walker, Australia
Colin Watkinson, The Fall
Editing:
Cloverfield
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
The Wrestler
Art Direction:
Australia
Changeling
City of Ember
The Curious case of Benjamin Button
The Fall
Costumes:
Changeling
Doubt
The Duchess
The Fall
Revolutionary Road
Make-up:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Tropic Thunder
FX:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Visual Effects is one of the few categories I wouldn't vote for TDK on my own ballot, but with the pitiful finalists like these... (I don't believe in Hellboy chances, and the others are meh.)
But, if the Bat is not really invited to run in the "big" race after all (as I seemed to have predicted, after much changing back and forth), I think his chances to be nominated here paradoxically increase.
Sound Mixing:
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Hancock
Iron Man
WALL-E
Sound Editing:
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Hancock
Iron Man
WALL-E
Music:
Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Danny Elfman, Milk
James Newton Howard, The Happening
Thomas Newman, WALL-E
A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Ultimately, I am dropping John Williams for Indiana Jones. He almost never missed a nomination when elligible -- but AMPAS passed on his Phantom Menace, which was much better revisiting of and old Lucas trilogy that Kingdom of Crystal Skull, including musically. Sure, he had another film in the running back then, but it's not like they were ever above nominating him twice the same year.
Song:
"I thought I Lost You", Bolt
"Gran Torino", Gran Torino
"Trouble the Water", Trouble the Water
"Down to Earth", WALL-E
"The Wrestler", The Wrestler
Animated:
Horton Hears a Who!
Sky Crawlers
WALL-E
Yup. I am sticking to my totally unrelastic predictions here. But seriously, while conventional wisdom proclaimed Kung Fu Panda and Waltz with Bashir lock eons ago, I consider the two slots (WALL-E is in, naturally) open for six or seven movies. KFP and WWB might be safest bets (although something about Bashir has been telling me "Foreign - yes, Animated - no" for months now, and something about Horton screams Surf's Up), but this category has, in its short history, ignored commercial and/or critical darlings too many times to count. Maybe this year will hold no such surprises, but, I'll take this risk. For the record, I also considered Bolt and $9.99, but decided to stick with my initial hunch.
(Incidentally, if you cared to compare this post with the previous one, you'll notice I kept sticking to my December hunches way too often. It's a result of starting this post way too late.)
Animated Short:
Glago's Guest
La maison en petits cubes
Presto
Skhizein
This Way Up
Doc:
The Betrayal - Nerakhoon
Blessed Is the Match: The Life and Death of Hannah Senesh
Man on Wire
Standard Operating Procedure
Trouble The Water
Doc Short:
The Conscience of Nhem En
Smile Pinki
Tongzhi in Love
The Witness From the Balcony of Room 306
Live Action Short:
The Execution of Solomon Harris
Haber
Salvador (Historia de un milagro cotidiano)
Soft
Victor Gazon
Unlike all other niche caregories nobody else is predicting I haven't managed find any sort of shortlist or longlist for Short Live Action. So I put here some films that do seem pretty Oscar-y and gathered some awards semi-recently. I have no idea if any of those is even elligible.
Foreign:
Arráncame la vida, Mexico
Der Baader Meinhof Komplex, Germany
Entre Les Murs, France
Maria Larssons eviga ögonblick, Sweden
Waltz with Bashir, Israel
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