Basically, instead of choosing only one predicted winner per category, I propose a whole ranking for each, with number 1. denoting whom I consider the most probable winner, and 5. - the least. Here we go!
Picture:
1.Slumdog Millionaire
2.The Curious case of Benjamin Button
3.Milk
4.The Reader
5.Frost/Nixon
Director:
1.Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
2.Gus Van Sant, Milk
3.David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4.Stephen Daldry, The Reader
5.Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Actor:
1.Sean Penn, Milk
2.Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
3.Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
4.Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5.Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Actress:
1.Meryl Streep, Doubt
2.Kate Winslet, The Reader
3.Melissa Leo, Frozen River
4.Angelina Jolie, Changeling
5.Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Supp Actor:
1.Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
2.Josh Brolin, Milk
3.Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
4.Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
5.Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Supp Actress:
1.Viola Davis, Doubt
2.Amy Adams, Doubt
3.Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
4.Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
5.Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Orig Screenplay:
1.Dustin Lance Black, Milk
2.Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon, WALL-E
3.Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
4.Courtney Hunt, Frozen River
5.Martin McDonagh, In Bruges
Adapted Screenplay:
1.Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
2.John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
3.David Hare, The Reader
4.Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
5.Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Cinematography:
1.Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
2.Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight
3.Claudio Miranda, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4.Chris Menges and Roger Deakins, The Reader
5.Tom Stern, Changeling
Editing:
1.The Dark Knight
2.Slumdog Millionaire
3.Milk
4.Frost/Nixon
5.The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Art Direction:
1.The Curious case of Benjamin Button
2.The Dark Knight
3.Changeling
4.Revolutionary Road
5.The Duchess
Costumes:
1.The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2.Australia
3.The Duchess
4.Milk
5.Revolutionary Road
Make-up:
1.The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2.The Dark Knight
3.Hellboy 2
FX:
1.The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2.The Dark Knight
3.Iron Man
Sound Mixing:
1.The Dark Knight
2.Slumdog Millionaire
3.WALL-E
4.The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5.Wanted
Sound Editing:
1.WALL-E
2.Slumdog Millionaire
3.The Dark Knight
4.Wanted
5.Iron Man
Music:
1.A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
2.Thomas Newman, WALL-E
3.Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4.Danny Elfman, Milk
5.James Newton Howard, Defiance
Song:
1."Down to Earth", WALL-E
2."O Saya", Slumdog Millionaire
3."Jai Ho", Slumdog Millionaire
Animated:
1.WALL-E
2.Kung Fu Panda
3.Bolt
Animated Short:
1.La maison en petits cubes
2.Presto
3.Lavatory - Lovestory
4.This Way Up
5.Oktapodi
Doc:
1.Trouble The Water
2.Man on Wire
3.The Betrayal - Nerakhoon
4.Encounters at the End of the World
5.The Garden
Doc Short:
1.The Final Inch
2.The Witness From the Balcony of Room 306
3.The Conscience of Nhem En
4.Smile Pinki
Live Action Short:
1.Auf der Strecke
2.The Pig
3.Manon on the Asphalt
4.New Boy
5.Spielzeugland
Foreign:
1.Waltz with Bashir
2.Der Baader Meinhof Komplex
3.Departures
4.Entre Les Murs
5.Revanche
..............................................
Similarly, instead of limiting myself to one "should win" per category -- I ranked each the order in which I would like them to win (missing nominees means I haven't seen them):
Picture, Director:
...okay, I tried, but I find the two "top" categories flaout least exciting this year. I thought I liked Milk the most (if not a lot), but then I saw the Times of Harvey Milk documentary and was appalled at how much of the good parts of Dustin Lance Black's "original" screenplay was taken straight from this earlier, superior film. I thought I liked The Reader the least, but the more I witness Slumdog blind craze, the more flaws in it I retroactively see. (And don't get me started about what the filmmakers did to the poor
As for Director, I reasonably like all five of these guys (yes, even Howard, unlike 95% of film bloggers out there), even though not for their 2008's offerings.
Moving on to the categories where I do have someone to root for...
Actor:
1.Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
2.Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
3.Sean Penn, Milk
4.Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5.Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Actress:
1.Sally Hawk... Er, oops, let me begin again:
Actress:
1.Meryl Streep, Doubt
2.Melissa Leo, Frozen River
3.Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
4.Angelina Jolie, Changeling
5.Kate Winslet, The Reader
Supp Actor:
1.Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
2.Josh Brolin, Milk
3.Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
4.Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
5.Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
Supp Actress:
1.Viola Davis, Doubt
2.Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
3.Amy Adams, Doubt
4.Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
5.Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Orig Screenplay:
1.Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
2.Martin McDonagh, In Bruges
3.Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon, WALL-E
4.Courtney Hunt, Frozen River
5.Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Adapted Screenplay:
1.John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
2.Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
3.Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
4.Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5.David Hare, The Reader
Cinematography:
1.Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight
2.Claudio Miranda, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3.Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
4.Chris Menges and Roger Deakins, The Reader
5.Tom Stern, Changeling
Editing:
1.The Dark Knight
2.Milk
3.Slumdog Millionaire
4.Frost/Nixon
5.The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Art Direction:
1.The Curious case of Benjamin Button
2.Changeling
3.Revolutionary Road
4.The Duchess
5.The Dark Knight
Costumes:
1.Revolutionary Road
2.The Duchess
3.The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4.Milk
5.Australia
Make-up:
1.Hellboy 2
2.The Dark Knight
3.The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
FX:
1.The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2.The Dark Knight
3.Iron Man
Sound Mixing:
1.WALL-E
2.The Dark Knight
3.Slumdog Millionaire
4.Wanted
5.The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Sound Editing:
1.WALL-E
2.The Dark Knight
3.Iron Man
4.Slumdog Millionaire
5.Wanted
Music:
1.Thomas Newman, WALL-E
2.A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
3.Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4.Danny Elfman, Milk
5.James Newton Howard, Defiance
Song:
1."Down to Earth", WALL-E
2."O Saya", Slumdog Millionaire
3."Jai Ho", Slumdog Millionaire
Animated:
1.WALL-E
2.Kung Fu Panda
3.Bolt
Animated Short:
1.This Way Up
2.Lavatory - Lovestory
3.Presto
4.Oktapodi
Doc:
1.Man on Wire
2.Encounters at the End of the World
Doc Short:
---
Live Action Short:
1.Manon on the Asphalt
Foreign:
1.Entre Les Murs
2.Waltz with Bashir
3.Revanche
