The Too Early Oscar Guesses (aka Predictions)

Mind you, there are a dozen, if not more, of those floating on the Web already. But only mine has so many indie and genre films, and so much overlap with my personal "films awaited" and "artists too long snubbed" lists! ;)

Picture:
Agora
Amelia
Avatar
An Education
Shanghai

Director:
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Mikael Hafström, Shanghai
Mira Nair, Amelia
Lone Scherfing, An Education

If this lineup were to materalize, the amount of women ever nominated for Best Director would double.

Actor:
Edward Asner, Up
Matt Damon, The Informant
Robert Downey, Jr., Sherlock Holmes
Morgan Freeman, The Human Factor
Sam Rockwell, Moon

Actress:
Julie Delpy, The Countess
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Michelle Pfeiffer, Chéri
Hillary Swank, Amelia
Rachel Weisz, Agora

Supp Actor:
Scott Bakula, The Informant
Chow Yun-Fat, Shanghai
Colin Firth, Dorian Gray
Jude Law, Sherlock Holmes
Max Minghella, Agora

Supp Actress:
Kathy Bates, Chéri
Gong Li, Shanghai
Emma Thompson, An Education
Mia Wasikowska, Amelia
Olivia Williams, An Education

Orig Screenplay:
Hossein Amini, Shanghai
Dave Eggers and Vendela Vida, Away We Go
Nick Hornby, An Education
Anders Thomas Jensen and Lars von Trier, Antichrist
Duncan Jones and Nathan Parker, Moon

I was thinking, "Who the heck is Dave Eggers? He has penned two potential 2009 hits -- apart from Away We Go, he is credited alongside Spike Jonze for Where the Wild Things Are, whih was a close sixth in my Adapted guesses -- and before that, nothing?" Then I found out he is the man behind the Internet phenomenon that is McSweeney's. Oops. Hats off to you, Mr Eggers. I've been your fan for years, without ever looking up your name.

Adapted Screenplay:
Michael Bacall and Edgar Wright, Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
Ronald Bass, Amelia
Scott Z. Burns, The Informant
Christopher Hampton, Chéri
Nikita Mikhalkov, 12

I have no idea whether Mikhalkov is elligible if his film was already up for Foreign Oscar a couple of years ago, but it only recently gotten a limited run in the US. And it would be cool to see a nom for the remake that does something interesting with the original rather than completely (I assume) unnecessary ones like State of Play or Brothers.

Cinematography:
Barry Ackroyd, The Hurt Locker
Benoît Delhomme, Shanghai
Stuart Dryburgh, Amelia
Anthony Dod Mantle , Antichrist
Dane Spinotti, Public Enemies

If they decide to go for even more first-timers than I proposed, there is also John De Borman for An Education, Xavi Giménez for Agora and Stuart Dryburgh has another shot with The Tempest.

Editing:
Amelia
Avatar
The Human Factor
Public Enemies
Shanghai

Art Direction:
Agora
Angels & Demons
Coraline
Public Enemies
Shanghai

Costumes:
Amelia
The Boat That Rocked
Chéri
The Tempest
Where the Wild Things Are

Make-up:
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Star Trek
The Wolf Man 

FX:
Moon
Star Trek
Terminator: Salvation

It's borderline crazy to predict the great unknown that is Avatar in Best Picture and five other categories, but not in Visual Effects -- however, isn't the film supposed to be largely CGI and motion-capture based? If so, isn't the Academy likely to greet it with its misguided "If it's animated, it's not special effects!" prejudice?

Sound Mixing:
Avatar
Nine
Public Enemies
Star Trek
Terminator: Salvation

Sound Editing:
9
Avatar
Star Trek
Terminator: Salvation
Up

Yes, that's Nine the musical in one sound category, and 9 the animated film in the other.

Music:
Nick Cave and Warren Ellis, The Road
Michael Giacchino, Star Trek
Elliot Goldenthal, Public Enemies
James Horner, Avatar
James Newton Howard, Inhale

Song:
a new song written specifically for Nine
a song from A Christmas Carol
a song from Star Trek

Animated:
9
Coraline
Fantastic Mr Fox
Ponyo on a Cliff
Up

Seeing as I had to exclude A Christmas Carol, Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs, Mary and Max and The Princess and the Frog, each of which has a potential to be great, to arrive at tha above five, I'd say 2009 can easily turn out to be the best year for feature-length animations EVER.



Okay, now follow the categories almost nobody predicts just before the Oscars, and literally nobody a year in advance... so if you are revisiting this post in 2010, and even one of my guesses is correct, feel free to praise my awesomeness.

Animated Short:
The Ballad of Nessie
Berni's Doll
The Cat Piano
Świteź
Western Spaghetti

Western Spaghetti 1) is too short, 2) too plotless and 3) seems to have debuted online. But 3) it played in Sundance, so there is perhaps some kind of loophole for its elligibility. As for 1) and 2) if the AMPAS recognized similarly quirky Don Hertzfeldt surprisingly early in his career, here's hoping they'll soon appreciate the wild imagination of PES, too.

Doc:
The Cove
Freakonomics
Motherland
Untitled Clean Flicks Documentary
Untitled Michael Moore Project

Like in all the final categories (or all the categories, to be honest), I can be totally off with those, but at least Freakonomics should get its fair share of buzz, what with it being based on a super-popular book, and helmed by a group of documentarians with one Oscar, three nominations and two Sundance awards between them. If it's actually being made and will be ready this year, that is.

Doc Short:
China's Wild West
I Knew It Was You
Rare Chicken Rescue
The Solitary Life of Cranes

Live Action Short:
The Ground Beneath
Luksus
Megatron
Mon nom est Victor Gazon
Princess Margaret Blvd.

Foreign:
Los abrazos rotos
C’est pas moi, je le jure
Ponyo on a Cliff
Storm
Ved verdens ende

The most detailed Oscar predictions on the Internet!

...which, mind you, shouldn't be confused with "the most accurate"! ;)

Basically, instead of choosing only one predicted winner per category, I propose a whole ranking for each, with number 1. denoting whom I consider the most probable winner, and 5. - the least. Here we go!

Picture:
1.Slumdog Millionaire
2.The Curious case of Benjamin Button
3.Milk
4.The Reader
5.Frost/Nixon

Director:
1.Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
2.Gus Van Sant, Milk
3.David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4.Stephen Daldry, The Reader
5.Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon

Actor:
1.Sean Penn, Milk
2.Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
3.Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
4.Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5.Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon

Actress:
1.Meryl Streep, Doubt
2.Kate Winslet, The Reader
3.Melissa Leo, Frozen River
4.Angelina Jolie, Changeling
5.Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married

Supp Actor:
1.Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
2.Josh Brolin, Milk
3.Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
4.Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
5.Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Supp Actress:
1.Viola Davis, Doubt
2.Amy Adams, Doubt
3.Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
4.Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
5.Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Orig Screenplay:
1.Dustin Lance Black, Milk
2.Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon, WALL-E
3.Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
4.Courtney Hunt, Frozen River
5.Martin McDonagh, In Bruges

Adapted Screenplay:
1.Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
2.John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
3.David Hare, The Reader
4.Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
5.Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Cinematography:
1.Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
2.Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight
3.Claudio Miranda, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4.Chris Menges and Roger Deakins, The Reader
5.Tom Stern, Changeling

Editing:
1.The Dark Knight
2.Slumdog Millionaire
3.Milk
4.Frost/Nixon
5.The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Art Direction:
1.The Curious case of Benjamin Button
2.The Dark Knight
3.Changeling
4.Revolutionary Road
5.The Duchess

Costumes:
1.The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2.Australia
3.The Duchess
4.Milk
5.Revolutionary Road

Make-up:
1.The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2.The Dark Knight
3.Hellboy 2

FX:
1.The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2.The Dark Knight
3.Iron Man

Sound Mixing:
1.The Dark Knight
2.Slumdog Millionaire
3.WALL-E
4.The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5.Wanted

Sound Editing:
1.WALL-E
2.Slumdog Millionaire
3.The Dark Knight
4.Wanted
5.Iron Man

Music:
1.A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
2.Thomas Newman, WALL-E
3.Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4.Danny Elfman, Milk
5.James Newton Howard, Defiance

Song:
1."Down to Earth", WALL-E
2."O Saya", Slumdog Millionaire
3."Jai Ho", Slumdog Millionaire

Animated:
1.WALL-E
2.Kung Fu Panda
3.Bolt

Animated Short:
1.La maison en petits cubes
2.Presto
3.Lavatory - Lovestory
4.This Way Up
5.Oktapodi

Doc:
1.Trouble The Water
2.Man on Wire
3.The Betrayal - Nerakhoon
4.Encounters at the End of the World
5.The Garden

Doc Short:
1.The Final Inch
2.The Witness From the Balcony of Room 306
3.The Conscience of Nhem En
4.Smile Pinki

Live Action Short:
1.Auf der Strecke
2.The Pig
3.Manon on the Asphalt
4.New Boy
5.Spielzeugland

Foreign:
1.Waltz with Bashir
2.Der Baader Meinhof Komplex
3.Departures
4.Entre Les Murs
5.Revanche

..............................................

Similarly, instead of limiting myself to one "should win" per category -- I ranked each the order in which I would like them to win (missing nominees means I haven't seen them):

Picture, Director:
...okay, I tried, but I find the two "top" categories flaout least exciting this year. I thought I liked Milk the most (if not a lot), but then I saw the Times of Harvey Milk documentary and was appalled at how much of the good parts of Dustin Lance Black's "original" screenplay was taken straight from this earlier, superior film. I thought I liked The Reader the least, but the more I witness Slumdog blind craze, the more flaws in it I retroactively see. (And don't get me started about what the filmmakers did to the poor child actors children!) So yeah, I don't think I can be bothered to rank them.

As for Director, I reasonably like all five of these guys (yes, even Howard, unlike 95% of film bloggers out there), even though not for their 2008's offerings.

Moving on to the categories where I do have someone to root for...

Actor:
1.Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
2.Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
3.Sean Penn, Milk
4.Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5.Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon

Actress:
1.Sally Hawk... Er, oops, let me begin again:

Actress:
1.Meryl Streep, Doubt
2.Melissa Leo, Frozen River
3.Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
4.Angelina Jolie, Changeling
5.Kate Winslet, The Reader

Supp Actor:
1.Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
2.Josh Brolin, Milk
3.Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
4.Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
5.Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder

Supp Actress:
1.Viola Davis, Doubt
2.Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
3.Amy Adams, Doubt
4.Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
5.Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Orig Screenplay:
1.Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
2.Martin McDonagh, In Bruges
3.Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon, WALL-E
4.Courtney Hunt, Frozen River
5.Dustin Lance Black, Milk

Adapted Screenplay:
1.John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
2.Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
3.Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
4.Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5.David Hare, The Reader

Cinematography:
1.Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight
2.Claudio Miranda, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3.Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
4.Chris Menges and Roger Deakins, The Reader
5.Tom Stern, Changeling

Editing:
1.The Dark Knight
2.Milk
3.Slumdog Millionaire
4.Frost/Nixon
5.The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Art Direction:
1.The Curious case of Benjamin Button
2.Changeling
3.Revolutionary Road
4.The Duchess
5.The Dark Knight

Costumes:
1.Revolutionary Road
2.The Duchess
3.The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4.Milk
5.Australia

Make-up:
1.Hellboy 2
2.The Dark Knight
3.The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

FX:
1.The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2.The Dark Knight
3.Iron Man

Sound Mixing:
1.WALL-E
2.The Dark Knight
3.Slumdog Millionaire
4.Wanted
5.The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Sound Editing:
1.WALL-E
2.The Dark Knight
3.Iron Man
4.Slumdog Millionaire
5.Wanted

Music:
1.Thomas Newman, WALL-E
2.A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
3.Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4.Danny Elfman, Milk
5.James Newton Howard, Defiance

Song:
1."Down to Earth", WALL-E
2."O Saya", Slumdog Millionaire
3."Jai Ho", Slumdog Millionaire

Animated:
1.WALL-E
2.Kung Fu Panda
3.Bolt

Animated Short:
1.This Way Up
2.Lavatory - Lovestory
3.Presto
4.Oktapodi

Doc:
1.Man on Wire
2.Encounters at the End of the World

Doc Short:
---

Live Action Short:
1.Manon on the Asphalt

Foreign:
1.Entre Les Murs
2.Waltz with Bashir
3.Revanche

How did I do?

Unforeseen get underlined, wrongfully predicted are crossed out.

Picture:
The Curious case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
The Wrestler
3/5

Director:
Darren Arronofsky, The Wrestler
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk
2/5

Actor:
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
4/5

Actress:
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas, Il y a longtemps que je t'aime
Michelle Williams, Wendy and Lucy
Kate Winslet, The Reader
2/5; and I should have kep my mouth shut re: Angelina.

Supp Actor:
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Eddie Marsan, Happy-Go-Lucky
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
3/5

Supp Actress:
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Debra Winger, Rachel Getting Married
4/5

Orig Screenplay:
Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Courtney Hunt, Frozen River
Charlie Kaufman, Synecdoche New York
Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
Martin McDonagh, In Bruges
Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon, WALL-E
4/5

Adapted Screenplay:
Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Don McKellar, Blindness
David Hare, The Reader
Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
4/5

Cinematography:
César Charlone, Blindness
Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
Claudio Miranda, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Chris Menges and Roger Deakins, The Reader
Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight
Tom Stern, Changeling
Mandy Walker, Australia
Colin Watkinson, The Fall
2/5

Editing:
Cloverfield
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
The Wrestler
2/5

Art Direction:
Australia
Changeling
City of Ember
The Curious case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
The Fall
Revolutionary Road
2/5

Costumes:
Australia
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
The Duchess
The Fall
Milk
Revolutionary Road
2/5

Make-up:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Hellboy 2
Tropic Thunder
2/3

FX:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
3/3

Sound Mixing:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Hancock
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Wanted
2/5

Sound Editing:
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Hancock
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Wanted
3/5

Music:
Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Danny Elfman, Milk
James Newton Howard, Defiance
James Newton Howard, The Happening
Thomas Newman, WALL-E
A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire

4/5 and so close to 5/5. If only I nad't assumed they'd have the decency to go with the better score (even if it's for a worse film) with their new darling Howard. And I was right about John Williams!

Song:
"I thought I Lost You", Bolt
"Gran Torino", Gran Torino
"Jai Ho", Slumdog Millionaire
"O Saya", Slumdog Millionaire
"Trouble the Water", Trouble the Water
"Down to Earth", WALL-E
"The Wrestler", The Wrestler
1/3; even having 5 shots at it didn't help. And why are there only 3 nominees anyway? (Not to mention: why does this tacky category still exist?)

Animated:
Bolt
Horton Hears a Who!
Kung Fu Panda
Sky Crawlers
WALL-E
1/3

Animated Short:
Glago's Guest
Lavatory - Lovestory
La maison en petits cubes
Oktapodi
Presto
Skhizein
This Way Up
3/5

Doc:
The Betrayal - Nerakhoon
Blessed Is the Match: The Life and Death of Hannah Senesh
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man on Wire
Standard Operating Procedure
Trouble The Water
3/5

Doc Short:
The Conscience of Nhem En
The Final Inch
Smile Pinki
Tongzhi in Love
The Witness From the Balcony of Room 306
3/4

Live Action Short:
Auf der Strecke
The Execution of Solomon Harris
Haber
Manon on the Asphalt
New Boy
The Pig
Salvador (Historia de un milagro cotidiano)
Soft
Spielzeugland
Victor Gazon
0/5. Auf der Strecke was one of the titles that came up in my research, though -- sadly, I had to limit the list to five.

Foreign:
Arráncame la vida, Mexico
Der Baader Meinhof Komplex, Germany
Departures, Japan
Entre Les Murs, France
Maria Larssons eviga ögonblick, Sweden
Revanche, Austria
Waltz with Bashir, Israel
3/5

So, 62/111, or 55,86 % in total. But I was having fun, so there!

Oscar quasipredictions redux.

It didn't quite work, did it? The "I may post some commentary later on" part, I mean. And now most decisions that would have needed commentary I'd rather pretend never happened. I mean, Choke? Well, here be my last-minute predictions and rest assured that there are a lot of new (as well as returning) crazy ones. But if I luck out just with one of them, it'll have been totally worth it!

Anyway, this time, I interspersed it with some commentary, but it won't go too deep. I am doing it more for the fun of guessing the rare out-of-the-field contender, or general trends, rather than maximize my prediction accuracy (which I will count, though). So if I tried to justify every occasion of eschewing a common-knowledge "lock", I wouldn't have finished typing before the actual announcement of the nominations.

Picture:
The Curious case of Benjamin Button
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
The Wrestler

Director:
Darren Arronofsky, The Wrestler
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Actor:
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

All the predictions in all categories are heavily swayed by my wishful thinking. However, I made a conscious decision not to be influenced by it in case of one film: The Visitor. I think it's a viable dark horse in Original Screenplay, Music, and to a lesser extent both Supportings. But seeing as superior and more loved by precursors Station Agent got zero nominations, I don't want to set myself up for disappointment here. I like the film too much. I had to make an exception for Jenkins, though...

Actress:
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas, Il y a longtemps que je t'aime
Michelle Williams, Wendy and Lucy

Just like last year, I am not sure at which point Jolie suddenly became a lock. I admit my picks are, er, courageous, but I'd be willing to bet actual money (not much, mind you, but I am not a gambler at heart!) that Angelina doesn't get in anyway. Sure, she is a very serious possibility, but nothing throughout the season points quite to the level of support Streep, Winslet or Hathaways have -- and yet, just like last year, everybody will act as though it's a great upset if she doesn't.

Supp Actor:
Josh Brolin, Milk
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Eddie Marsan, Happy-Go-Lucky
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

Supp Actress:
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Debra Winger, Rachel Getting Married

Orig Screenplay:
Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Courtney Hunt, Frozen River
Charlie Kaufman, Synecdoche New York
Martin McDonagh, In Bruges
Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon, WALL-E

Adapted Screenplay:
Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Don McKellar, Blindness
Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt

Cinematography:
César Charlone, Blindness
Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight
Mandy Walker, Australia
Colin Watkinson, The Fall

Editing:
Cloverfield
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
The Wrestler

Art Direction:
Australia
Changeling
City of Ember
The Curious case of Benjamin Button
The Fall

Costumes:
Changeling
Doubt
The Duchess
The Fall
Revolutionary Road

Make-up:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Tropic Thunder

FX:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

Visual Effects is one of the few categories I wouldn't vote for TDK on my own ballot, but with the pitiful finalists like these... (I don't believe in Hellboy chances, and the others are meh.)

But, if the Bat is not really invited to run in the "big" race after all (as I seemed to have predicted, after much changing back and forth), I think his chances to be nominated here paradoxically increase.

Sound Mixing:
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Hancock
Iron Man
WALL-E

Sound Editing:
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Hancock
Iron Man
WALL-E

Music:
Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Danny Elfman, Milk
James Newton Howard, The Happening
Thomas Newman, WALL-E
A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire

Ultimately, I am dropping John Williams for Indiana Jones. He almost never missed a nomination when elligible -- but AMPAS passed on his Phantom Menace, which was much better revisiting of and old Lucas trilogy that Kingdom of Crystal Skull, including musically. Sure, he had another film in the running back then, but it's not like they were ever above nominating him twice the same year.

Song:
"I thought I Lost You", Bolt
"Gran Torino", Gran Torino
"Trouble the Water", Trouble the Water
"Down to Earth", WALL-E
"The Wrestler", The Wrestler

Animated:
Horton Hears a Who!
Sky Crawlers
WALL-E

Yup. I am sticking to my totally unrelastic predictions here. But seriously, while conventional wisdom proclaimed Kung Fu Panda and Waltz with Bashir lock eons ago, I consider the two slots (WALL-E is in, naturally) open for six or seven movies. KFP and WWB might be safest bets (although something about Bashir has been telling me "Foreign - yes, Animated - no" for months now, and something about Horton screams Surf's Up), but this category has, in its short history, ignored commercial and/or critical darlings too many times to count. Maybe this year will hold no such surprises, but, I'll take this risk. For the record, I also considered Bolt and $9.99, but decided to stick with my initial hunch.

(Incidentally, if you cared to compare this post with the previous one, you'll notice I kept sticking to my December hunches way too often. It's a result of starting this post way too late.)

Animated Short:
Glago's Guest
La maison en petits cubes
Presto
Skhizein
This Way Up

Doc:
The Betrayal - Nerakhoon
Blessed Is the Match: The Life and Death of Hannah Senesh
Man on Wire
Standard Operating Procedure
Trouble The Water

Doc Short:
The Conscience of Nhem En
Smile Pinki
Tongzhi in Love
The Witness From the Balcony of Room 306 

Live Action Short:
The Execution of Solomon Harris
Haber
Salvador (Historia de un milagro cotidiano)
Soft
Victor Gazon

Unlike all other niche caregories nobody else is predicting I haven't managed find any sort of shortlist or longlist for Short Live Action. So I put here some films that do seem pretty Oscar-y and gathered some awards semi-recently. I have no idea if any of those is even elligible.

Foreign:
Arráncame la vida, Mexico
Der Baader Meinhof Komplex, Germany
Entre Les Murs, France
Maria Larssons eviga ögonblick, Sweden
Waltz with Bashir, Israel

Oscar quasipredictions.

With the Golden Satellite nominations (which I haven't looked into too closely yet) announced today, I guess the movie award season is officially open. So I thought it's about time to put my Oscar "predictions" online.

Oh, and this site (like the title says) is not a blog, although it may eventually evolve into one. So why did I feel compelled to put this foreword as if I expected someone to read it? Easy: 1. Because it might get readers by accident (e.g. via Google search). 2. Because if I become a blogging celebrity years from now, I'd be ashamed that my first post was a bare-bones list (and editing it then would feel like cheating somehow). 3. Why not?

Also, for the same three reasons, you (hypothetical you) may expect some additional commentary to my "predictions" in the nearest future.

Welcome to my non-blog, hypothetical readers, and have fun reading on!

Picture:
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E

Director:
Darren Arronofsky, The Wrestler
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Actor:
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Sam Rockwell, Choke
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Actress:
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Julianne Moore, Blindness
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas, Il y a longtemps que je t'aime

Supp Actor:
Josh Brolin, Milk
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Eddie Marsan, Happy-Go-Lucky
Brad Pitt, Burn After Reading
Michael Sheen, Frost/Nixon

Supp Actress:
Hiam Abbass, The Visitor
Amy Adams, Doubt
Viola Davis, Doubt
Anjelica Huston, Choke
Debra Winger, Rachel Getting Married

Orig Screenplay:
Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Charlie Kaufman, Synecdoche New York
Tom McCarthy, The Visitor
Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon, WALL-E
J. Michael Straczynski, Changeling

Adapted Screenplay:
Don McKellar, Blindness
Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan and Jonathan Nolan, The Dark Knight
Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt

Cinematography:
César Charlone, Blindness
Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight
Tom Stern, Changeling
Mandy Walker, Australia
Colin Watkinson, The Fall

Editing:
Changeling
Cloverfield
The Dark Knight
WALL-E
The Wrestler

Art Direction:
Australia
Changeling
City of Ember
The Fall
Revolutionary Road

Costumes:
Changeling
Doubt
The Fall
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Revolutionary Road

Make-up:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Tropic Thunder

FX:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Iron Man
WALL-E

Sound Mixing:
Appaloosa
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Iron Man
WALL-E

Sound Editing:
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Hancock
Iron Man
WALL-E

Music:
Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
James Newton Howard, Defiance
James Newton Howard, The Happening
Thomas Newman, WALL-E
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

Song:
"I thought I Lost You", Bolt
"Rock Me Sexy Jesus", Hamlet 2
"All Dressed Up in Love", Sex and the City
"Down to Earth", WALL-E
"The Wrestler", The Wrestler

Animated:
Horton Hears a Who!
Sky Crawlers
WALL-E

Animated Short:
Descendants
Franz Kafka's A Country Doctor
Hungu
Presto
Skhizein

Doc:
The Betrayal - Nerakhoon
Blessed Is the Match: The Life and Death of Hannah Senesh
Fuel
Man on Wire
Trouble The Water

Doc Short:
The Conscience of Nhem En
Smile Pinki
Tongzhi in Love
The Witness From the Balcony of Room 306 

Live Action Short:
The Execution of Solomon Harris
Haber
Salvador (Historia de un milagro cotidiano)
Soft
Victor Gazon

Foreign:
Der Baader Meinhof Komplex, Germany
Los Girasoles Ciegos, Spain
Gomorra, Italy
Rusalka, Russia
Waltz with Bashir, Israel