Picture:
Agora
Amelia
Avatar
An Education
Shanghai
Director:
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Mikael Hafström, Shanghai
Mira Nair, Amelia
Lone Scherfing, An Education
If this lineup were to materalize, the amount of women ever nominated for Best Director would double.
Actor:
Edward Asner, Up
Matt Damon, The Informant
Robert Downey, Jr., Sherlock Holmes
Morgan Freeman, The Human Factor
Sam Rockwell, Moon
Actress:
Julie Delpy, The Countess
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Michelle Pfeiffer, Chéri
Hillary Swank, Amelia
Rachel Weisz, Agora
Supp Actor:
Scott Bakula, The Informant
Chow Yun-Fat, Shanghai
Colin Firth, Dorian Gray
Jude Law, Sherlock Holmes
Max Minghella, Agora
Supp Actress:
Kathy Bates, Chéri
Gong Li, Shanghai
Emma Thompson, An Education
Mia Wasikowska, Amelia
Olivia Williams, An Education
Orig Screenplay:
Hossein Amini, Shanghai
Dave Eggers and Vendela Vida, Away We Go
Nick Hornby, An Education
Anders Thomas Jensen and Lars von Trier, Antichrist
Duncan Jones and Nathan Parker, Moon
I was thinking, "Who the heck is Dave Eggers? He has penned two potential 2009 hits -- apart from Away We Go, he is credited alongside Spike Jonze for Where the Wild Things Are, whih was a close sixth in my Adapted guesses -- and before that, nothing?" Then I found out he is the man behind the Internet phenomenon that is McSweeney's. Oops. Hats off to you, Mr Eggers. I've been your fan for years, without ever looking up your name.
Adapted Screenplay:
Michael Bacall and Edgar Wright, Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
Ronald Bass, Amelia
Scott Z. Burns, The Informant
Christopher Hampton, Chéri
Nikita Mikhalkov, 12
I have no idea whether Mikhalkov is elligible if his film was already up for Foreign Oscar a couple of years ago, but it only recently gotten a limited run in the US. And it would be cool to see a nom for the remake that does something interesting with the original rather than completely (I assume) unnecessary ones like State of Play or Brothers.
Cinematography:
Barry Ackroyd, The Hurt Locker
Benoît Delhomme, Shanghai
Stuart Dryburgh, Amelia
Anthony Dod Mantle , Antichrist
Dane Spinotti, Public Enemies
If they decide to go for even more first-timers than I proposed, there is also John De Borman for An Education, Xavi Giménez for Agora and Stuart Dryburgh has another shot with The Tempest.
Editing:
Amelia
Avatar
The Human Factor
Public Enemies
Shanghai
Art Direction:
Agora
Angels & Demons
Coraline
Public Enemies
Shanghai
Costumes:
Amelia
The Boat That Rocked
Chéri
The Tempest
Where the Wild Things Are
Make-up:
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Star Trek
The Wolf Man
FX:
Moon
Star Trek
Terminator: Salvation
It's borderline crazy to predict the great unknown that is Avatar in Best Picture and five other categories, but not in Visual Effects -- however, isn't the film supposed to be largely CGI and motion-capture based? If so, isn't the Academy likely to greet it with its misguided "If it's animated, it's not special effects!" prejudice?
Sound Mixing:
Avatar
Nine
Public Enemies
Star Trek
Terminator: Salvation
Sound Editing:
9
Avatar
Star Trek
Terminator: Salvation
Up
Yes, that's Nine the musical in one sound category, and 9 the animated film in the other.
Music:
Nick Cave and Warren Ellis, The Road
Michael Giacchino, Star Trek
Elliot Goldenthal, Public Enemies
James Horner, Avatar
James Newton Howard, Inhale
Song:
a new song written specifically for Nine
a song from A Christmas Carol
a song from Star Trek
Animated:
9
Coraline
Fantastic Mr Fox
Ponyo on a Cliff
Up
Seeing as I had to exclude A Christmas Carol, Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs, Mary and Max and The Princess and the Frog, each of which has a potential to be great, to arrive at tha above five, I'd say 2009 can easily turn out to be the best year for feature-length animations EVER.
Okay, now follow the categories almost nobody predicts just before the Oscars, and literally nobody a year in advance... so if you are revisiting this post in 2010, and even one of my guesses is correct, feel free to praise my awesomeness.
Animated Short:
The Ballad of Nessie
Berni's Doll
The Cat Piano
Świteź
Western Spaghetti
Western Spaghetti 1) is too short, 2) too plotless and 3) seems to have debuted online. But 3) it played in Sundance, so there is perhaps some kind of loophole for its elligibility. As for 1) and 2) if the AMPAS recognized similarly quirky Don Hertzfeldt surprisingly early in his career, here's hoping they'll soon appreciate the wild imagination of PES, too.
Doc:
The Cove
Freakonomics
Motherland
Untitled Clean Flicks Documentary
Untitled Michael Moore Project
Like in all the final categories (or all the categories, to be honest), I can be totally off with those, but at least Freakonomics should get its fair share of buzz, what with it being based on a super-popular book, and helmed by a group of documentarians with one Oscar, three nominations and two Sundance awards between them. If it's actually being made and will be ready this year, that is.
Doc Short:
China's Wild West
I Knew It Was You
Rare Chicken Rescue
The Solitary Life of Cranes
Live Action Short:
The Ground Beneath
Luksus
Megatron
Mon nom est Victor Gazon
Princess Margaret Blvd.
Foreign:
Los abrazos rotos
C’est pas moi, je le jure
Ponyo on a Cliff
Storm
Ved verdens ende
